Improving Applied Groundwater Model Prediction through Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

Monday, April 12, 2010: 1:30 p.m.-3:30 p.m.
Tabor Auditorium (Westin Tabor Center, Denver)
Prediction is the ultimate goal of applied groundwater modeling, and prediction uncertainty is vital to managers. Use of parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis to estimate prediction uncertainty has garnered significant attention in research, large-scale government projects, and the academic realm. This session focuses on integrating parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis into groundwater modeling. This session includes presentations from academia, consulting, research institutes, governmental agencies, and people actively applying parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis to improve groundwater model predictions. Case studies highlighting successful, cost-effective application of uncertainty analysis and parameter estimation to politically, socially, or economically sensitive issues are included.
Moderators:
Eileen P. Poeter , Jason R. House and Mary C. Hill
1:50 p.m.
Predictions of TCE Plume Expansion Using Calibration-Constrained Monte Carlo Analysis
Gregory W. Council, PE, GeoTrans (a Tetra Tech company); James L. Ross, Ph.D., GeoTrans (a Tetra Tech company)
2:30 p.m.
Accurately Projecting Contaminant Recovery by Modeling with Analogy to Charge Transport in Disordered Solids
David M. Tuck, Ph.D., NAPLogic Inc.; Brent A. Ferguson, the Lawrenceville School
2:50 p.m.
Parameter Estimation Under Variable-Density Flow Conditions
Rohit R. Goswami, Ph.D., Geosyntec Consultants; Chad Drummond, PE, Geosyntec Consultants
3:10 p.m.
Using Multiple Alternative Models to Evaluate Groundwater Model
Mary C. Hill, Ph.D., USGS; Laura Foglia, Ph.D., University of California-Davis; Steffen Mehl, Ph.D., California State University; Paolo Burlando, Ph.D., ETH
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