Implications of Climate Change for Ground Water Management in Arizona

Tuesday, April 21, 2009: 4:10 p.m.
Turquoise III (Hilton Tucson El Conquistador Golf & Tennis Resort )
Katharine L. Jacobs , Arizona Water Institute, Tucson, AZ
Stanley Leake , USGS, Tucson, AZ
The recent IPCC findings indicate that the southwestern US is likely to experience significant impacts from warming, particularly in the water resources sector. The combination of predicted higher temperatures and new projections of reductions in winter precipitation in Mexico and the southern portions of the southwest mean that even if total precipitation increases on average across the globe, drought is likely to become an even greater problem. The IPCC also concludes that the intensity of precipitation is likely to increase in future climate scenarios for most parts of the US.  Therefore, both extremes of precipitation – floods and droughts – will increasingly challenge water managers, especially in the southwest.  

Climate change can affect aquifers by affecting the quantity of natural recharge. With typical ranges of aquifer properties and distances between recharge and discharge areas, timing of aquifer responses to these boundary changes could range from years to many decades. Changes in climate that reduce availability of surface water willresult in more reliance on groundwater in many areas, potentially producing a near immediate aquifer response.

The implications of these changes for water management are important, and vary depending on the geology of watersheds and on the flexibility of the institutions that are in place.  Arizona’s groundwater management regulations focus on reducing the overdraft of aquifers in the central and southern parts of the state.  These systems focus on achievement of “safe-yield”, or elimination of groundwater mining in selected basins.  Within specific basins, there is consideration of managing groundwater levels to achieve “sustainability” of surface flows.  In this paper, we consider mechanisms for incorporating climate change science into Arizona’s groundwater management program.