Simulating the Impacts of Shale Oil Production, Climate Variability, and Climate Change On Water Resources in the Upper Colorado River Basin with the WARMF Model

Oil shale is one of the largest fossil energy resources in the western United States.  Reserves of recoverable shale oil are estimated at 1.8 trillion barrels (at greater than 15 gallons per ton) for the Green River formation in Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado, but may be much higher.  A production goal of 2.5 million barrels per day of shale oil has been often-cited.  However, oil shale development is energy intensive and not carbon neutral without carbon capture and sequestration, and oil shale development may require as much as 1 to 3 barrels of water per barrel of upgraded shale oil produced.  We are investigating the impacts of shale oil production, climate variability, and climate change on water resources in the White and Upper Colorado Rivers using the WARMF model.  WARMF is a GIS and physics-based energy, water, and chemical balance and transport model that predicts runoff in streams and rivers from meteorological inputs.  Because WARMF handles reservoir and river diversion operations, we are also analyzing how operations may be modified to optimize flows to meet supply needs as water demand grows and climate change impacts intensify.  Our results indicate that the effects of climate change will cause a significant reduction in snowpack in the Colorado Mountains, which causes large decreases in river flows.  We have focused our analyses on Colorado’s Piceance Basin and assumed a production rate of 1.5 million barrels of oil per day.  Without considering climate change, we can manage the new water demand from shale oil production by diverting flows from the White and Upper Colorado rivers (during periods of medium to high flows) into an expanded reservoir capacity of about 150,000 acre feet.  However, increased expansion of reservoir capacity may be necessary for large-scale oil shale production given some climate change scenarios.