The New Great Game: Water, Gas, and Oil, in the South Caucasus

Tuesday, April 13, 2010: 10:45 a.m.
Tabor Auditorium (Westin Tabor Center, Denver)
Michael E. Campana, Ph.D. , Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
     After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Kura-Araks Basin became an international river basin with respect to the South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.  However, there are no agreements regarding water allocation, water quality, or ecosystem maintenance among the aforementioned riparians. The main water problems in the basin include not only water quantity and quality, but also the lack of joint management.
    
The aforementioned countries share many similar circumstances: location in a politically unstable region; bureaucratic and structural issues; and more importantly, ongoing ethnic and related conflicts. Despite these obstacles, the countries recognize that they depend greatly on shared waters of the basin. They are working on joint water projects at the technical level, notably the NATO-OSCE South Caucasus River Monitoring project. The West’s interest in South Caucasus water stems from the energy resources of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan and the construction of oil and gas pipelines that would bypass Russian territory en route to Europe.
     To assess obstacles to cooperation and identify common objectives, we interviewed 30 key water resource managers and officials in July 2005. These interviews helped us to understand each country’s current situation and future needs with respect to water in the South Caucasus. The interview results show that the main obstacle to cooperation is the lack of trust among the three countries due to the current political situation, especially Nagorno-Karabakh. However, most individual interviewees (93%), regardless of their country of origin, were very positive about cooperating as individuals on transboundary water management; this illustrates the contrast between government policies and individuals’ opinions. The fact that individuals are willing to collaborate on water resource studies may generate an “upward diffusion” of trust to higher levels of government, perhaps enabling the South Caucasus countries to realize peace and security.