Using a model’s purpose to guide model updates: The case of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain aquifer

Tuesday, December 5, 2017: 2:20 p.m.
Jeremy White , US Geological Survey WRD Texas Water Science Center, Austin, TX
Brian Clark , Lower Mississippi-Gulf Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fayetteville, AR
Daniel Tebo , Texas Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Austin, TX
Wade Kress , Lower Mississippi-Gulf Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Nashville, TN

Uncertainty and data-worth analyses evaluate the reliability of computer model outputs and estimate which model inputs are contributing most to model output uncertainty. These analyses direct decision makers to well-informed decisions and allow practitioners to estimate data importance for reduced model output uncertainty.

These techniques have been applied to the existing Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer System (MERAS) model to guide data collection and model dataset construction for the proposed Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) aquifer model. The focus of the MAP model is to forecast aquifer water levels and surface-water/groundwater (SW-GW) exchange under different climatic and water-use conditions. Forecasts of interest (FOIs) simulated by the MERAS model include water levels and SW-GW exchange along major surface-water features under conditions of less recharge and increased water use. Preliminary results from the uncertainty analysis indicate streambed conductance values may better constrain uncertainty in water-levels and streamflow, which can be used to guide data collection in the field. These results will be presented and discussed in the context of data collection and model data preparation.

Jeremy White, US Geological Survey WRD Texas Water Science Center, Austin, TX
Dr. Jeremy White is a hydrologist and groundwater specialist with the Texas Water Science Center in Austin, Texas. He completed his B.S. in computer science at West Texas A&M, and M.S. and Ph.D. in geology at the University of South Florida. Dr. White has extensive experience with parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in environmental and geophysical models, as well as simulation of surface water and groundwater interactions and density-dependent groundwater flow. Dr. White also has experience using high-performance computing systems to solve massively and embarrassingly parallel problems.


Brian Clark, Lower Mississippi-Gulf Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fayetteville, AR
Brian Clark is a hydrologist with the USGS. He received a BS from Arkansas Tech (1998) and MS from Baylor University (2000). His research interests include groundwater-flow modeling and geographic information systems.


Daniel Tebo, Texas Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Austin, TX
Daniel Tebo is a Hydrologist with the USGS, Texas Water Science Center in Austin, Texas. He received a B.S. in Engineering Geology at the University of Texas - Arlington, and a M.S. in Geophysics at Texas A&M University.


Wade Kress, Lower Mississippi-Gulf Water Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Nashville, TN
Wade Kress has been a hydrologist for the U.S. Geological Survey since 1996. He has a BS in geology from Louisiana Tech University and is currently working on an MSc in petroleum geosciences at the Petroleum Institute in Abu Dhabi. Wade has worked throughout the United States as well as the United Arab Emirates on environmental and hydrogeologic framework projects specializing in the application of hydrogeophysics


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