Empirical Linear Model for Base Flow Forecast as a Function of the Rainfall Moving Average

Tuesday, December 5, 2017: 1:20 p.m.
Edson Wendland , University of São Paulo (USP), São Carlos-SP, Brazil
Derly Gómez , Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Bucaramanga, Colombia
Davi de Carvalho Diniz Melo , University of São Paulo, São Carlos-SP, Brazil
Dulce Rodrigues , Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil

Climatic variation may result in insufficient input of water in the water balance in a region, resulting in inconsistencies in the water rights permits. During droughts such reference discharges may not reach the water rights permits, requiring groundwater extraction to compensate this deficiency in surface water bodies. The aim of this study is to determine the integrated water availability (surface and groundwater), using an empirical linear model, proposed as a function of the average rainfall of previous periods related to the aquifer regulation time. Correlation and spectral techniques were employed for time-series analysis of precipitation (P) and base flow discharge (Q) in the Ribeirão da Onça watershed, to determine response times of Q as a function of P. The proposed methodology was developed for precipitation and discharge observed from 2003 to 2014 in a watershed with an area of 65 km2. The obtained results indicate that the aquifer stores the rainfall water with regulation times of approximately 60 days for the subsurface flow, and approximately 2 years for the base flow. The methodology was also tested for two sub-basins of the Jacaré-Guaçú River watershed, with areas of 1867 and 3519 km2.The proposed methodology allows the estimation of a sustainable reference discharge making it possible to predict the base flow variation during recession periods, since it is defined as a function of past rainfall.
Edson Wendland, University of São Paulo (USP), São Carlos-SP, Brazil
Edson Wendland has been a Professor in the Department of Hydraulics and Sanitary Engineering at the University of São Paulo since 2001. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering, an M.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering, and a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering. From 1996 to 1999 Wendland was Assistant Professor in the Department of Applied Geology at Ruhr University Bochum in Germany. His research and publications focus mainly on field experiments for water resources evaluation and numerical modeling of groundwater flow and solute transport.



Derly Gómez, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Bucaramanga, Colombia
Bachelor in Ingeniería Civil from Universidad Industrial de Santander (2012). Has experience in Civil Engineering, focusing on Hydraulic Engineering. Master of Science in Hydraulic Engineering at University of São Paulo


Davi de Carvalho Diniz Melo, University of São Paulo, São Carlos-SP, Brazil
Davi Melo is a Ph.D. student in the Department of Hydraulics and Sanitary Engineering at the University of São Paulo. He has been involved with studies related to the estimation of climate change impacts on groundwater recharge and water balance in the Guarani Aquifer System. His current research focuses on downscaling of Global Circulation Models for numerical modeling of groundwater flow in a watershed scale.


Dulce Rodrigues, Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil
bachelor's in ENGENHARIA AMBIENTAL from Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (2007), master's at Sanitary Engineering from Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul (2010) and Ph.D. in Hydraulics and Sanitary Engineering from Universidade de São Paulo. Has experience in Sanitary Engineering, focusing on Integrated Planning of Hydrical Resources.


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