Data-Based Sustainable Agriculture: Small-Scale Irrigation Development in Africa

Warming temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and population growth are leading to increasing or new dependences of agriculture on groundwater. In Africa, less than 1% of agricultural land is currently irrigated with groundwater, however environmental, population, and economic pressures are motivating an increase in groundwater use. In light of unsustainable groundwater consumption in parts of the developed world, we aim to address the challenge of sustainable irrigation development across Africa. We present a remote sensing and field data-based irrigation decision support tool to reduce risk and improve yields for smallholder farmers within a changing climate. The tool will meet the needs of individual farmers as well as government or NGO organizations who are setting policies and targeting groundwater development efforts. Environmental and hydrogeologic data carry various degrees of uncertainty across the Continent, and there are inherent uncertainties in modeling crop yield response to changes in management; therefore, we aim to convey the uncertainty associated with each irrigation recommendation, allowing farmers to balance their personal tolerance for crop production uncertainty and financial risk. These results will have implications for smallholder farmer food and water security, and will help inform management decisions in a rapidly changing and resource-constrained world.