Understanding Risk and Uncertainty in Groundwater: a Case for Development of a Groundwater Resource Classification and Reporting Code (GRCRC)

Risk and uncertainty are common companions in groundwater management – as a science, groundwater is inherently uncertain given the complexity of geology and dynamics of water flow. As groundwater professionals, in most instances we understand the significance of uncertainty, methods, potential pitfalls or sense of risk. The uncertainty can make us conservative or confident, depending on our individual risk profile and assessment of impact.

At this point, our industry currently stumbles. Although there is limited issue to disagree internally on interpretations, results or impacts, it is significant for those who we interact with– our community, government and managers who rely upon advice to inform decisions. As customers, they require clear representation of a situation and to be made aware of the uncertainty/risk associated. Unfortunately, with an absence of industry standards, the style and content of communication may be individual opinion or sense of risk. A framework of established definitions and classifications which describe levels of confidence as an industry for public information is required.

The experience of the mining and petroleum industry provides a relevant example, where several decades ago a lack of transparency and errant ethical behaviour reduced stock market confidence and associated trust of industry. As a proactive approach, these industries developed and adopted an enormously successful, industry wide Code to classification and reporting.

This paper proposes a comparative model – a Groundwater Resource Classification and Reporting Code (GRCRC) as a starting point for conversation and journey towards an industry framework for uncertainty transparency. With increasing reliance on groundwater as a resource for human or environmental use, in addition to increased water scarcity or conflict in the future, a groundwater industry Code presents a tremendous opportunity to improve communication, protect industry reputation and also increase the value of our contribution to the world and society in which we live.