Evaluating the Resiliency of Existing and Proposed Water-Supply Portfolios Using a Dynamic Simulation Model
Evaluating the Resiliency of Existing and Proposed Water-Supply Portfolios Using a Dynamic Simulation Model
Wednesday, February 26, 2014: 8:40 a.m.
Ballroom 1 (Crowne Plaza Albuquerque)
The concept of resiliency of water supply in the face of climate change and climate variability is characterized by the robustness of a given supply portfolio in the face of uncertainty. Given recent observed climatic variations such as long periods of drought followed by large amounts of rainfall, we may expect more supply variability in the future. The Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority (Water Authority) supply portfolio includes surface water, groundwater, wastewater reuse and plans for groundwater storage via aquifer storage and recovery. Blending and managing these supply elements by combining, for example, the drought reserve capability of groundwater with the ability to capture and store surface water in times of excess flow are key to maintaining a robust supply with 100% reliability. To evaluate the various management alternatives that may be available, the Water Authority is developing a dynamic simulation model of its resources which include both supply and demand components. The model allows the user to combine various supply and demand management options into “portfolios” allowing comparison and evaluation of an array of options. In addition, the model facilitates short-term forecasting for the purpose of, for example, developing the Water Authority Annual Operating Plan. It also allows evaluation of historical accounting to evaluate past trends and scenarios. Future water demands can be examined through variation of population trends, efficiency, and use categories. These options allow the user to explore different customer profiles and behaviors, and how those may affect demand (and supply) in the future. Additionally, the model includes the ability to evaluate potential effects of climate change on both supply and demand. In summary, the dynamic simulation model provides a robust planning tool for the Water Authority to evaluate plausible future scenarios and their relative resiliency and feasibility.